Detail Eady Model derivation

Deriving this was one of the best experiences of my Masters

Key Points from SARI/Energy Maldives-Submarine cable Interconnection – Pre Feasibility study:

Following are the findings of a pre-feasibility study of Submarine cable interconnection in greater Male region (stretching from Thilafushi to Hulhumale) in 2010. A detail feasibility study is still pending for this huge investment with negligible financial return. But it is an investment that is desperately needed for continued power supply with in next couple of years.

Greater Male Region:

1. Thilafushi – Villigili : 3.4km, Villigili – Male: 1.5km, Male – Hulhumale: 1km
2.  Installed total capacity in the Male region: 46.16MW,  with dependable capacity  of 41.544MW
3. Thilafushi has private power producers in addition to STELCO plant
4.  In 2009 demand load in Male’ rose beyond the dependable capacity
5. The demand growth of the region is approximately 11% per year
6.  Even with the addition of the 3x8MW diesel units in 2010 and 2011, Male’ would run out of capacity by 2015 as the older units start to retire.
7.    The rapid pace of development on Hulhumale’ will use up the available supply capacity by 2010 and significant generation additions would be required
8.  Villigili has sufficient to last until 2020 when the existing units will start to be retired
9. Thilafushi will run out of  capacity in 2010 and generation additions will be required to meet both only the growth of the existing load but also to take over the industrial load now served by captive generation
10. Three options for interconnection were suggested and tentative price was estimated
• Scenario 1: Build generation capacity in Hulhumale for the future demand of Thilafushi, Villigili, Male and Hulhumale’ (which would amount to additional 110MW build up in Hulhumale by 2030 while most generators in other islands would retire).  The connections are made by laying dual cable as a fail safe.
•  Scenario 2: Build generation capacity in Hulhumale and Thilafushi for the future demand of Thilafushi, Villigili, Male and Hulhumale’ (which would amount to additional 63.2MW build up in Hulhumale and 46.8MW in Thilafushi by 2030 while most generators in other islands would retire). The connections are made by laying dual cable as a fail safe.
•  Scenario 3: Build generation capacity in Hulhumale and Thilafushi for the future demand of Thilafushi, Villigili, Male and Hulhumale’ (which would amount to additional 77.6MW build up in Hulhumale and 46.8MW in Thilafushi by 2030 while most generators in other islands would retire).
11.   Cost of scenario 1 and 2 is estimated to be USD 63.3 Million
12.  Cost Scenario 3 is estimated to be USD 43.7 Million, but this scenario requires additional installation of 16 MW in each island in case of cable outage. This is an additional capital cost of about USD 40 million. 
13. 5 US cents increase in tariff for transmission system to cover capital cost as well as O&M cost

Environmental considerations:

·         There is no significant environmental impact if the project proceeds with the proper regulations and conditions. Environmentally it helps by optimizing power generation efficiency and helps towards carbon neutrality by providing more opportunities for different RE power generation considered in Carbon Neutral paper. Calculations in  Carbon Neutral Paper by Dan Morrel (which was used as a basis of carbon neutrality policy announcement) was revised from USD 1.1 Billion  to USD 2.3 Billion

Grid Emission Factors (G.E.F) in Maldives for 2012

Grid emission factor is the amount of emission per unit of electricity used in that grid. Below I have derived the grid emission factor (GEF) for some islands on Maldives based on data of 2012.

*one kWh is equal one unit of electricity

The significance of these numbers is that it gives you an idea how much carbon footprint you would have if you were living in one of those islands. All you would have to do is take the kWh (meter) reading for a particular month and multiply with this number. And that would give the contribution of your household to global warming or climate change by the use of electricity that month or the period that reading has been taken.

Remember this just one part of your carbon footprint, there are others things like the waste u create, or the cycles, buses or taxis ride you take which adds to your carbon footprint.

True Energy Price in Maldives (updated)

When I say "true energy price" I do not mean the price of petrol/diesel available at the petrol bunks nor do I mean the price of fossil fuel per liter or per kg. It would mean the price per energy content of the fuel.

Given the different types of fossil fuel imported to Maldives over the past 10 years and how it is measured (LPG in kg while diesel in liters) it and its different energy content(diesel have higher energy content than petrol), it would be completely impossible to give an accurate picture of which fuel is more expensive and which is cheaper. In order to give an accurate comparison of the cost of fossil fuels imported, I had to convert the amount of fuel imports in that period to its respective energy content. And that energy content is measured against the monetary value expended to buy that fuel. The diagram below shows such a comparison of the 4 major fossil fuel imports in Maldives over 10 years (2001 to 2010). This just for information.

The data provided for this analysis is from Maldives Customs Services, and the data has been used without any changes to the original data. Furthermore this analysis is not a reviewed or a published analysis. 

Global Warming and Energy Consumption

The figure above shows the relation between energy consumption and atmospheric temperature. It shows a clear relation between rising temperature with energy use. This means the rising temperature exhibited  in the long term temperature trend (as shown in figure below) from Hulhule' Met station would translate into an increase in energy consumption in Male region.

And this creates a vicious cycle. That is more electricity used means more GHG in Male' meaning more global warming, higher temperatures and again more electricity. More electricity also mean we spend a lot more money of fuel which frankly Maldives cannot really afford to do for mid and long term. The other issue is the relation between development and electricity or energy as a whole. The following figure shows how closely energy consumption is related to GDP growth.

It infers that increase in economy, leads to increase in Energy, which leads to increase in fossil fuel consumption and increase in CO2 emission and global warming. As i said before due to high dependence of fossil fuel we can't afford to increase our energy usage as it is. Even if we have to slow down and look for other options we will run into a wall sooner rather than later. We need to choose an option which would decouple development/ energy consumption from fossil fuel/ CO2 emission. And the Urgency is now.

GHG emissions in Maldives overtime. (Updated)

The figure shows the increase of GHG emission in the maldives overtime. The method used to derive the numbers was using top to bottom approach and using standard emission factors from IPCC EFDB. The  gap from 95 to 2000 is due to lack of data. The unit Gg is equivalent to kilo-ton equivalent of CO2. The 2012 (the red bar) is projected emission for this year based on the 1st quarter of the year.

Male' in 1922 and today